EU border check levels track rejection rates, product by product

The EU's border check levels line up with what its border rejects, for the origins it lists. Under Regulation (EU) 2019/1793, origin-and-product lines checked at 50% show a median 1,677 border rejections per $1 billion of EU imports over three years. Lines checked at 10% show 61. Across 26 listed lines the rank correlation between check level and rejection rate is 0.78. The gap is outside the list: some origins with no check at all run at the rates of listed ones.

This is for exporters reading their own check level, and for authorities and journalists asking whether the list points at the right places. We tested the opposite claim, that check levels barely track outcomes. It does not hold.

Check level against rejection rate

Regulation 2019/1793 sets, for each listed origin and product, the share of consignments that get identity and physical checks at the EU border: 10%, 20%, 30% or 50%. We matched each level to the site's border-rejection rate for the same origin and product. The last column measures the same rejections against import tonnes instead of value.

Among listed lines the median rises at every step, on value and on tonnes. The ranges overlap, so a check level is a guide to a product's record, not a forecast. Three 50% pepper lines (Vietnam, Uganda, Rwanda) import too little on record for a tonnes figure, so that median covers six lines.

The pairs that show it

• Pistachios. Turkish and Iranian pistachios are both under a 50% aflatoxin check and run at 244.0 and 246.1. Turkish hazelnuts run at 1.8 and are not on either annex. The 50% line covers pistachios only (CN 0802 51 and 0802 52). Hazelnuts share the four-digit heading, so the two are easy to confuse.
• Hazelnuts. Where hazelnuts are listed, the rate is higher. Georgia and Azerbaijan (20%) run at 207.4 and 116.9, against Turkey's 1.8.
• Peppers. Turkey (20%) runs at 154.0. Egypt (30%) runs at 945.1. Thailand, Rwanda, Uganda and Vietnam (50%) run between 1,677 and 4,214.
• Sesame. India, Turkey and Uganda (30%) run at 201.7, 226.6 and 233.3. Nigeria and Sudan (50%) run at 681.6 and 3,323.

Where the pattern breaks

• Argentine groundnuts: 4.7 under a 20% check. US groundnuts sit at the same 20% and run at 199.0. Argentina's line is the clearest case of a check level above what the record now shows.
• Kenyan peppers: 1,129 under a 20% check. That is the rate of the 50% band, and the opposite case to Argentina.
• Unlisted origins that run like listed ones. Albanian and North Macedonian peppers run at 324.8 and 221.5, above Turkey's 20% line, with no check level. UAE pistachios run at 391.3. The UAE is not a pistachio grower, so these are most likely re-exported nuts, while Iran's own pistachios sit at 50%. This is why the table's "not listed" median is higher than the 10% and 20% bands.
• Chinese rice: 389.6 and not listed. 16 of its 22 border rejections since October 2023 are for unauthorised genetically modified rice. That hazard has its own emergency measure, Implementing Decision 2011/884/EU, which is still in force. So "not listed in 2019/1793" does not mean "not checked".
• Mixed product groups. Some site pages group a listed product with unlisted ones: vine leaves with grapes, passion fruit with bananas, curry leaves with other leafy vegetables. The trade figure then covers far more than the checked product, and the rate is diluted. We left these 12 lines out of the table. With them and the unlisted lines included, the correlation is 0.61.

Why the pattern is partly built in

Two things push in the same direction, and this data cannot separate them.

1. More checks find more. A consignment that is never sampled is rarely rejected. A high rate under a 50% check partly reflects the testing itself.
2. The list follows the record. Article 12 of the regulation requires the Commission to review the annexes at least every six months, "to take into account new information related to risks and non-compliance". Lines with many rejections are the ones that get listed or raised.

So the stronger signals are the exceptions. A low rate under a high check level is a product being tested often and still passing, and that is the case for lowering the check: Argentine groundnuts fit it clearly. A high rate under a low or no check level is found without the extra testing, which makes it harder to explain away: Kenyan peppers, and the Albanian, North Macedonian and UAE lines.

What this means if you…

• …export a listed product: your check level tells you how the EU reads your origin's record. Expect it to move with that record at the next review. If your rate is low for your band, that record is your argument.
• …export an unlisted one: a rate like a listed origin's is what a listing follows. Check your line against the listed origins of the same product.
• …work for an authority: the list broadly points where the rejections are. At the next review, check lines whose rate falls well outside their band, such as Argentine groundnuts at 20% and Kenyan peppers at 20%, and the unlisted pepper and pistachio lines above.
• …write about EU border checks: check the exact tariff line before saying a product is under increased checks. Four-digit codes mix pistachios with hazelnuts, and chilli with sweet peppers.

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Method. Rates are border-rejection notifications per $1 billion of EU imports of that commodity from that origin, over the 12-quarter window shown on each page (FAOSTAT trade, 2024 the latest year). Tonnes are FAOSTAT EU import quantities for 2022–2024, shown only above 1,000 tonnes a year. Both are quoted from the site's origin-and-product pages, as of 25 September 2026 (RASFF data to 23 September). Pages below five notifications show no rate and are excluded. Check levels come from the consolidated text of Regulation (EU) 2019/1793 dated 30 June 2026, which includes amendments up to Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1206 of 9 June 2026. We matched them by full CN code, not by four-digit heading. Where one line carries several checks (for example Turkish citrus: 20% on lemons and oranges, 10% on mandarins), the highest counts. "Clean" lines are those where the listed product is essentially the whole product group the rate measures: 26 of 38 listed lines. "Not listed" lines are origins shipping the same products as the clean lines, with a rate and no check level. The correlation is Spearman's rank correlation. Revised on 25 September 2026: nine listed lines had no rate in the first version because of a gap in the site's trade data, and are now included.

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